Brazil court seen keeping Lula off ballot

17/8/2018 6:30

        Brazil's top electoral court
        has been handed a hot potato as it must decide whether the
        country's most popular politician can run in upcoming elections
        despite being jailed for corruption.
        
        The court is expected to declare former President Luiz
        Inacio Lula da Silva ineligible in the coming weeks, ahead of
        the Oct. 7 vote, but that may not stop his Workers Party (PT)
        winning anyway.
        
        Justice Rosa Weber, who heads the court, has said it will
        quickly make a decision that political analysts expect will come
        before campaign advertising on TV and radio begins on Aug. 31.
        
        Few in Brazil doubt Lula will be barred from running under a
        "Clean Slate" law that bans politicians from seeking public
        office if they have been convicted of a crime and it has been
        upheld on appeal.
        
        "There is no doubt he will be disqualified. It is a legal
        fact. After all it was he who signed the Clean Slate into law,"
        said Senator Katia Abreu, a farm lobby leader and vice
        presidential candidate for PT rival the Brazilian Labor Party.
        
        If the electoral court bans Lula, his lawyers are expected
        to appeal to the Supreme Court.
        
        That could suspend his ban, which could delay his case
        beyond a Sept. 17 deadline for changing names on the ballot.
        
        "Lula will try to delay a final ruling as far as possible,
        but the Supreme Court will uphold the TSE decision," said
        Ricardo Ismael, politics professor at the Catholic University of
        Rio de Janeiro.
        
        The PT registered the leftist leader's candidacy on
        Wednesday, with thousands of supporters chanting "Free Lula"
        outside the electoral court. Lula's running mate Fernando
        Haddad, a former Sao Paulo mayor, will head the ticket if he
        cannot run.
        
        
        
        INHERITING LULA'S VOTES
        
        In Brazil's most uncertain election in decades, Haddad is
        running a distant sixth in polls, far behind front-running
        far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who has capitalized on voter
        anger with political corruption and rising crime.
        
        With Lula's endorsement, Haddad would become a competitive
        candidate if he is able to attract a good part of the popular
        leftist's voters. Lula leads all polling when his name is
        included, taking about 30 percent of the vote, according to
        pollster Datafolha.
        
        In a fragmented field of 13 presidential hopefuls, Haddad
        could make the run-off between the two most voted candidates
        with as little as 15 percent of the votes, experts say.
        
        "If Haddad can transfer half of Lula's 30 percent, he can
        become a competitive candidate and get to the second round,"
        said Lucas de Aragao, at Brasilia consultancy Arko Advice.
        
        Voters in the poorest region of Brazil, Lula's native
        Northeast, which accounts for 26 percent of the electorate,
        remain extremely faithful to the president who greatly improved
        their quality of life and purchasing power, Ismael added.
        
        Abreu argued that Haddad was an unknown quantity in the
        Northeast and that voters will back her presidential candidate,
        center-leftist Ciro Gomes, who is also from the Northeast, or
        the environmentalist Marina Silva.
        
        "Nobody votes by power of attorney. They cannot even
        pronounce Haddad's name properly in the Northeast," she said.