New Zealand’s Luxon on course for second term, but weaker hand in coalition

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is on course to hang on to power as the head of a coalition government with a razor-thin majority following Nov 7’s election, but his National Party could lose control of key government ministries to right-wing coalition partners.



Centre-right National and the main opposition Labour Party both polled below 30% for the first time, losing votes to minor parties on the left, right and centre – a trend that analysts said mirrored a global shift away from the political establishment.



Preliminary New Zealand Electoral Commission data shows Luxon’s three-party coalition could govern with a majority of just two seats. But that margin may disappear once overseas and other special votes – which make up a seventh of the total and typically skew left – are included during the final count on Nov 27.



That could mean Luxon will require the support of a fourth party to govern – the centrist Opportunity, which looks set to enter Parliament for the first time.